An edited version of this story first appeared in DNA Money edition on Thursday, September 6, 2012.
The
Indian government is considering plain packaging of cigarettes
in line with new Australian laws that ban all logos and brand
descriptions, a top health official in New Delhi said on Wednesday.
"It
is a good idea and can be pursued," Amal Pushp, director of
tobacco control at the health ministry, told AFP. "We are
watching the developments in Australia with interest."
His comments came after Australian and Indian health experts
presented a report by the University of Melbourne that found 275
million Indians use tobacco, leading to nearly one million deaths a
year. India's health ministry welcomed the
report and said that plain packaging as adopted by Australia could be
taken up.
The
approach, industry experts said, though aimed at curtailing
consumption of cigarettes, will not really
serve the purpose. Avi Mehta, analyst, IIFL Institutional Equities,
while noting the concerns / impact of plain packaging norms on
cigarette volumes and in turn on valuations of Indian companies,
feels volume growth is unlikely to be impacted.
"With
around 70% of sales made through loose cigarettes in India, we
believe volume growth is unlikely to be impacted materially by any
such potential changes. Further, multiple tailwinds (reducing price
elasticity of cigarette volumes, launch of sub-65mm cigarette) would
aid volume growth. This was seen in first quarter (1Q) when cigarette
volumes were flat year on year (YoY) despite a sharp 12-15% increase
in prices," Mehta said in his recent note on ITC Ltd.
Starting
December 2012, tobacco products in Australia will be sold in
drab, uniform packaging with graphic health warnings in a
ground-breaking move that has attracted worldwide interest.
In plain packaging, graphic warnings are retained but all
colour, imagery and corporate logos are taken off to reduce the
appeal of smoking, especially among youngsters.
Manufacturers, however, will be allowed
to print only the brand name on the pack in a limited font size.
Though
a similar legislation is yet to hit India, industry experts said that
it is not really a new phenomenon and that cigarette companies were
completely aware of something like this coming by for a while now.
While there have been increasing restrictions on promotion and
marketing of tobacco products, companies have and are trying
various things to compensate or cope with this reality.
“If you look at ITC, it's not just a cigarette making company anymore and has processed food, personal care, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), packaging, hotels, stationery etc as part of its business. So while a large part of the company's profits still come from cigarettes, revenues from other verticals will eventually compensate for the decline in profits from the tobacco / cigarettes business,” said a top official from one of the leading FMCG companies.
However, the question to ask now is that as things get more and more stringent, what will be its impact on the business and what will these companies do to deal with it?
“If you look at ITC, it's not just a cigarette making company anymore and has processed food, personal care, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), packaging, hotels, stationery etc as part of its business. So while a large part of the company's profits still come from cigarettes, revenues from other verticals will eventually compensate for the decline in profits from the tobacco / cigarettes business,” said a top official from one of the leading FMCG companies.
However, the question to ask now is that as things get more and more stringent, what will be its impact on the business and what will these companies do to deal with it?
Anand
Halve, co-founder, Chlorophyll (a brand and communications
consultancy firm), said, "As packaging
becomes more and more uninviting, the brand image premium will
collapse. However, the human beast wants to smoke, drink, have sex
and gamble and, these businesses are not at all going away," he
said.
It's
a fact that people are completely aware of the harmful effects of
consuming things like tobacco, alcohol, drugs etc. They seek such
products for various reasons including to beat stress / seek
relaxation, as a style statement, considered part of growing up,
machismo etc. "If somebody want to consume alcohol or smoke a
cigarette, s/he will have it, come what may and that's the reality,"
said a marketing / branding official from a leading domestic firm.
Attempts
are ongoing for many years to create awareness about health concerns
arising from use of these products from government and non-government
organisations. As a result it has also been observed that there is a
long-term trend wherein the consumption of such products is
declining. However, it is known fact that people are still finding it
very difficult to give up completely.
"The
tobacco industry uses attractive packaging and aggressive marketing
to lure people," K Srinath Reddy,
president of independent research group the Public Health Foundation
of India (PHFI), told AFP adding that, "India
must initiate legislation on plain packaging, which would have
tremendous public health impact."
In
2009, India began printing graphic health warnings on cigarette
packets and other tobacco products. One
image attracted widespread publicity as it used an apparent picture
of England footballer John Terry with a superimposed set of blackened
lungs.
Santosh
Desai, MD and CEO, Futurebrands, feels a legislation (similar
to those proposed in Australia) if implemented will certainly impact
the desirability of smoking as an overall category in the long run.
"However, will it really change the competitive landscape by
acting more strongly against the dominant brands and whether that is
what the regulation should be all about is an open question,"
said Desai.