Titan cuts H2 FY’20 growth guidance to 11-13% from over 20% earlier

A version of this story first appeared in The Free Press Journal on Wednesday, November 6, 2019.

Stressed consumer sentiments coupled with growing tendency for conserving cash in hand is likely to impact growth targets for consumer companies in the remaining quarters of the current fiscal. And as demand environment continues to be sluggish, consumer companies could be looking to revise their growth guidance for the second half (H2) of fiscal 2019-20 (FY’20).

Taking a lead in this direction is Tata Group’s jewellery, watches, eyewear and fashion accessories business vertical, Titan Company Ltd (TCL). The company management said in an earnings call on Tuesday evening that it has revised jewellery business growth guidance for the period between October 2019 to March 2020. Taking a cautious approach Titan Co. management had in August 2019, said that it was targeting over 20% revenue growth keeping the wedding and festive season in mind.

C K Venkataraman, managing director, Titan, said, “The guidance has been revised to between 11% and 13% now from the earlier over 20% growth levels.” The downward revision has been done after taking into account that overall market situation and consumer buying behaviour, said the top company executive.

Analysts tracking Titan are of the view that the premise of over 20% growth talked about earlier was based on company’s execution of business and not necessarily relying on overall macro market conditions. However, the change in the guidance now is an indication of concerns in this industry as a result of which Titan management has made a significant correction in its growth numbers going forward.

Abneesh Roy, executive vice president - institutional equities (research), Edelweiss Securities, said that the brokerage has been pointing that achieving 20% guidance in H2FY20 is very difficult in jewellery business given weak sentiments, high base of 36% in Q3FY20 and 21% in Q4FY20. “For FY21, the company is yet to change guidance from current 20%. By next quarter, Titan said they will have more clarity,” said Roy.

 
While Edelweiss expects Titan to correct 5-6% in near term, from longer term perspective, the brokerage maintains a BUY on dips given huge retail expansion, struggling competitors and increasing formalisation of jewellery sector.

Elucidating the reasons that led to revising the guidance, Venkataraman said, the company had set out a growth table for five years based on positive sentiments in the business environment. Growth may have been sluggish, in single-digits or flat during the fiscals 2018 and 2019 owing to certain migration that started happening as a result of a lot of structural changes, demonetisation, Nirav Modi scam and so on.

”The trust factor started kicking in, in favour of Tanishq and we were able to deliver a 20% plus growth rate with a certain set of initiatives and certain level of excellence in our execution. Our internal research with consumers done earlier in January and February 2019, indicated positive sentiments. However, what’s appearing now after six - seven months, is that the sentiment is actually worse than what we had measured then.

“As a result, the overall industry has witnessed 70% decline in imports, every single jeweller that we are aware of, is talking about a decline, vendors are talking about big drop in supplies. Regional jewellers are talking about a 12% and 22% decline in business during the festive period as opposed to 10% positive growth that has been achieved by Tanishq. So, obviously the strategies and standards of excellence in our execution are happening in a circumstance that’s less in our favour than a year ago,” he said.

Taking into account the market conditions, the company had to go back to the drawing board, expand the number of weapons that required (to deal the market conditions) or create fresh ones. That, as per Venkataraman, will take a little more than a few months and hence the change in guidance for October 2019 to March 2020 period.

“It is our intent to keep gunning for the over 20% growth number for fiscal 2021. For the moment though, it can only be about tweaking of the arsenal that we already have. And we are going by the more recent growth performance over the last three to four months,” he said.

While companies like Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) operating in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector are optimistic about overall business, the company management had earlier said that near-term demand outlook, especially in the rural markets, remains challenging.

Among India's leading Ayurvedic and natural health care companies, Dabur said that it is working on achieving its annual growth target of mid to high single digits for the full year.

On the possibilities of revising the guidance for the second half of current fiscal, Mohit Malhotra, chief executive officer, Dabur Ltd, said, there was no need to do it. “We will work to achieve the targeted growth rates for the fiscal 2020,” he said in the earnings call on Tuesday.

(The writer is an independent business journalist and can be reached at ashishktiwari.1976@gmail.com)

Ever heard of an EMI facility for dental treatments?

Dental treatments are not just painful but expensive as well. In fact, given a choice between a root canal and removing the tooth, a lot of people may choose the latter given the several sessions of unbearable pain and the extent of money involved in this treatment or for that matter any other dental procedure.

Funding dental treatments at times become very challenging as most health insurance plans do not provide any coverage in their schemes. However, there is a new option that can be availed now. An equated monthly installment (EMI) facility to be precise.

While Bajaj Finserve has been offering an easy EMI facility with Lifecare Finance, across 400 cities and 2,700 partner clinics and hospitals but it's restricted to their EMI network. Similarly, dental clinic chain Sabkadentist has partnered with players like Bajaj Finserv, Capital Float and Snapmint EMI network to offer premium plans varying from three, six, nine, to 12 months of EMI payments.

A recent entrant in this space is Aditya Birla Finance Ltd (ABFL) that has partnered the Indian Dental Association (IDA) for an easy EMI facility to make dental treatments more accessible and convenient in the country. The initiative was made public at the recently concluded 11th World Dental Show 2019 in Mumbai. The easy EMI facility will have options starting at 0% interest. ABFL is the lending subsidiary of Aditya Birla Capital Ltd.

Rakesh Singh, managing director and chief executive officer, Aditya Birla Finance Ltd (ABFL), said, the scheme will provide customers with great value in the form of hassle-free credit with easy installments for their dental treatments. “It will be a seamless, fast and convenient transaction which is a win-win for both doctors and patients,” he said.

Rakesh Singh, MD & CEO, ABFL

The EMI facility is aimed at helping dentists with flexible monthly payment options thereby enabling patients to take avail dental treatments by making dental financing accessible, cashless, and convenient. Currently the programme pilot has been launched in Mumbai and Delhi with limited IDA dentist members and will be implemented Pan India in a phased manner.

Dr. Ashok Dhoble, secretary general, Indian Dental Association, said, easy EMI facility for dental treatments is an important step in facilitating and boosting the dental practice in India. “A much-needed service, this will ease the patients in terms of easy financing options on EMI basis. This facility is indeed a need of the hour to encourage people to willingly undertake oral treatment. Gearing-up on similar lines as in some of the developed countries,” he said.

Seeing early signs of declining trends in rural growth being arrested, says Nielsen's Sunil Khiani

While rural slowdown was seen impacting growth for the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies in the June quarter of fiscal 2020, the situation has only become worse in the September quarter that's showing significant stress in the rural markets.
Earlier this week FMCG market leader Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL), which reported domestic consumer growth of 7% on year and underlying volume growth of 5% on year, said that rural growth was 0.5 times that of urban. This basically meant that rural, that was growing at par with urban in the April to June quarter of fiscal 2020, has slowed down further and was now growing at half of urban rate.
According to Sanjiv Mehta, chairman and managing director, HUL, the near term demand outlook, especially in rural India, remains challenging.
A recent Nielsen report, however, makes it very evident that while companies are taking a very conservative view on the rural slowdown, the ground scenario there is way beyond the estimates. In fact, Nielsen did not shy away from making it very clear that 'for the first time in the last seven years, rural growth has dropped below urban'.

Rural is growing at 5% in Q3’19, which is 1/4th as compared to 20% in Q3’18, while Urban is growing at 8% as against 14% growth in Q3’18. The report further said that rural India that contributes 36% to overall FMCG spends has historically been growing around 3-5% points faster than urban. This has been on account of increasing affordability, availability and conversion of commodity to branding resulting in higher demand. However in recent periods, rural growth is slowing down at a much faster rate compared to urban. 
The report said, growth in Q3’19 sales per store in rural areas has become 1/4th versus Q3’18, which reflects a significant drop in demand amongst rural consumers. In addition, rural distribution growth has continued to inch downwards. Small manufacturers have seen the biggest drop in cumulative distribution growth where it has moved from 18% in Q3’18 to no growth in Q3’19, while for large manufacturers cumulative distribution growth has halved.
Small players that account for nearly 1/3rd of the sales in rural India through better value for money offerings now grow at a similar rate versus large manufacturers. This is in contrast to Q3'18 which was an inflection point for the growth rates of small and large manufacturers.
The growth rate for small manufacturers has slumped by 23%. Small player exits have increased by 33% and new entrants in the market have fallen owing to strong inflationary pressures and increasing input prices. 

There are early signs of the current declining trends getting arrested, according to Sunil Khiani, head – retail measurement service, Nielsen South Asia, as far as outlook for the second half of fiscal 2020 is concerned. "FMCG growth for Q3 2019 stands at 7.6% as against a prediction of 7% to 8% range. This is so far in line with our forecast. With the growth in the e-commerce sector the year end forecast for all India FMCG continues to be in the 9% to 10% range. While we expect Q4 2019 to be in the 6.5% to 7.5% range, we are now finally seeing early signs of the declining trends being arrested. The growth forecast for Q1 2020 (Jan-Mar 2020) stands in the range of 7.5% - 8.5%," Khiani said in the report.

Online food service and delivery aggregators cannot dictate commercials terms

The Federation of Hotel & Restaurant Association of India (FHRAI) has extended its support to the #Logout campaign initiated earlier in August 2019, by the National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI), against deep-discounting and unfriendly trade practices by online food service delivery aggregator #Zomato. The apex hotel industry body comprising HRANI, HRAWI, SIHRA and HRAEI along with several other associations viz. Thane Hotel Association, Pune Restaurants & Hotel Association (PRAHA), NHRA, Vadodara Food Entrepreneurs (VFE) have also come together and joined the #Logout movement.

Anurag Katriar, president, NRAI, “Coming together of the two national representative bodies of the industry is a very significant development meant to send out a strong message to the FSAs about their highly-detrimental and predatory trade practices. Several city-based and affiliated bodies joining the campaign strongly indicate that the pain is being felt across the entire industry and everyone is aligned together in this movement.”

While recognising the need for a peaceful co-existence of the hotel and restaurant industry with e-commerce aggregators, Katriar said, it is also very clear that the terms of engagement between the two sides have to be equal at all times.

Gurbaxish Singh Kohli, president, Hotel and Restaurant Association of India (HRAWI) and vice president, FHRAI said no one can usurp the role of the other, and aggregators cannot dominate the industry or conduct their business in a manner that is detrimental or negatively impacts the industry’s growth or profits.

“The group is further clear that these aggregators, who are heavily funded by private equity (PE) funds, have to recognise that their role is that of a ‘market-place and/or a service-provider’, akin to a travel agency or a discovery platform like Yellow Page of yore. Their role is to merely aggregate services of the industry; they 'do not' represent the hotel and food service industry. Therefore, they cannot decide or dictate commercials terms to and on behalf of the industry,” said Kohli.

Among specific issues and grievances pointed out by the united associations, against Zomato and others aggregators include: deep discounting, lop sided / oppressive contracts with arbitrary rule changes, high commissions, high penalties and unilateral changes to them, delayed payments and unreasonable penalties, unreasonable additional charges, unethical practices such as showing a restaurant closed when riders are unavailable, private labels, forced use of delivery services, unreasonable and arbitrary rules of engagement, non-transparency and inconsistency of search algorithms, imposed certification, data masking, employing coercive tactics by threat of drop in rating, breach of promise and changing goalposts (Zomato Gold is a classic example) and surreptitious attempts to collect customer data through schemes such as free Wi-fi etc.

“This group also unanimously agreed that the Zomato Gold is an extremely detrimental product for the industry and strongly opposes the same. It is clothed in such a manner that it misleads a few gullible members into disastrous consequences. The FSAs are slowly but surely gaining dominance with the help of massive funding being made available to them through venture funds and private equity capital, the funds are then used towards several unfair trade practices. As responsible industry bodies, we stand strongly to protect their interests,” said Katriar.

Having joined hands, according to Pradeep Shetty, vice president, HRAWI and joint secretary, FHRAI, the group of associations will not hesitate in embarking on a nationwide agitation and resistance against Zomato and others if its demands are not met within a stipulated time frame.

Initiating another campaign called #TakingBackControl the group of united associations has put together a five-point charter and send out a strong message to all FSAs that they should always consult them, never appease customers solely at their cost, always ensure their profit as FSAs ensure their GMV-led valuation, never police and compete with the food service business operators.

Through this five-pronged charter, the group clarified that tech start-ups masquerading as new age businesses are a mere digital extension of a traditional market place. The service providers offering aggregated services such as discovery and directory will henceforth be recognised by the industry as ‘ancillary service providers’.

“FHRAI along with its constituent bodies across India and NRAI is committed to educate its members and the food and beverages (F&B) fraternity at large, as well as the Government, media and most importantly its guests that it will in no way allow these ‘ancillary service providers’ to be considered as ‘partners’ which nomenclature has been conveniently abused to confuse everyone into thinking they represent the primary business of hospitality and food service,” said Kohli.