Manufacturing and farming sectors to benefit from lower GST on renewable energy devices

Mumbai: The reduction in Goods and Services Tax (GST) on renewable energy devices from 12% to 5% is expected to deliver substantial benefits to both the manufacturing and farming sectors. The reform, approved by the GST Council and effective from September 22, 2025, is part of a broader effort to lower clean energy costs and accelerate deployment across the country.

For manufacturers of renewable energy equipment, the GST cut will reduce module and component costs by an estimated 3–4%. This cost reduction is likely to enhance the competitiveness of Indian-made products, supporting the government’s Make in India and Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiatives. With India targeting 100 gigawatt (GW) of solar manufacturing capacity by 2030, the reform is expected to encourage new investment in domestic production facilities. Based on current employment multipliers, this expansion could generate between five and seven lakh direct and indirect jobs over the next decade, strengthening the industrial base of India’s clean energy economy.

The manufacturing sector also stands to benefit from improved margins and shorter payback periods, particularly for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) engaged in component fabrication and system integration. Lower input costs may enable manufacturers to offer more competitive pricing to developers and end-users, potentially increasing demand and production volumes. This could help stabilise supply chains and reduce reliance on imported components, especially in the context of global market volatility.

Farmers, meanwhile, will see direct financial relief under the PM-KUSUM scheme. A 5 HP solar pump, which currently costs around ₹2.5 lakh, will now be cheaper by approximately ₹17,500. At the scale of 10 lakh solar pumps, the cumulative savings for farmers could reach ₹1,750 crore. These savings are expected to make solar-powered irrigation more affordable, particularly in regions with limited access to grid electricity. By lowering upfront costs, the reform may also improve the viability of decentralised energy solutions such as mini-grids and solar water pumps, which are critical for rural livelihoods.

In addition to cost savings, the GST reduction could shorten payback periods for solar pump investments, improving returns for farmers and encouraging wider adoption. This is particularly relevant for smallholder farmers who often face liquidity constraints and depend on seasonal income. Cheaper solar pumps may also reduce dependence on diesel-based irrigation, lowering operational costs and contributing to cleaner air and reduced carbon emissions.

Together, the manufacturing and farming sectors represent key pillars of India’s renewable energy transition. By lowering costs and improving economic viability, the GST reform supports both industrial growth and rural empowerment. It also aligns with India’s broader climate and energy goals, including the target of 500 gigawatt (GW) of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.

Lower Goods and Services Tax on drones boosts industry clarity and adoption

Mumbai: Indian Government's decision to slash Goods and Services Tax (GST) on drones to a flat 5% marks a decisive correction in tax policy for a sector gaining strategic and commercial relevance. Until now, drones with integrated cameras were taxed at 18%, while personal-use models faced a steep 28% rate – a fragmented structure that created confusion and compliance burdens. The new uniform rate eliminates these disparities, offering clarity to manufacturers and users while signalling the government’s intent to streamline regulation around emerging technologies.

The most immediate benefit is reduced cost. With lower tax liability, manufacturers can offer drones at more competitive prices, making them more accessible to businesses and consumers. This is particularly relevant in sectors where drones are becoming essential – agriculture, infrastructure, logistics, mining and public safety. For instance, farmers using drones for crop monitoring or pesticide spraying will now face lower upfront costs, potentially accelerating adoption in rural areas where margins are tight and technology uptake has been slow.

The reform also resolves long-standing classification disputes. By eliminating the distinction between personal and commercial use, it provides policy certainty and reduces administrative overhead. This clarity benefits domestic manufacturers and importers, who previously had to navigate complex tax codes and risk penalties for misclassification. It also supports broader efforts to improve ease of doing business.

Strategically, the reduced GST aligns with national initiatives such as Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat. By lowering barriers to entry, the reform encourages domestic production and innovation in drone technology – not only in hardware but also in software development, data analytics and operational services. As demand grows, so too will employment opportunities across the value chain, from assembly lines to field operations.

Training and skill development stand to benefit as well. The exemption of GST on flight simulators and motion simulators, essential for pilot training, reduces costs for academies and airlines. This could lead to expanded training programmes and a more robust talent pipeline, addressing a key bottleneck in the sector’s growth.

Public services may also see gains. Government departments involved in surveying, disaster response and law enforcement increasingly rely on drones for efficiency and reach. Lower procurement costs could enable broader deployment, especially in remote or underserved regions, enhancing the state’s capacity to deliver services and respond to emergencies.

While the GST reduction is not a cure-all, it is a pragmatic step that addresses several structural challenges facing the drone industry. It simplifies taxation, lowers costs and aligns fiscal policy with technological priorities. As India positions itself as a global player in drone innovation, such measures will be critical in building a competitive and resilient ecosystem.

Rising credit stress slows retail and micro, small and medium enterprise loans

Mumbai: Despite supportive policy measures aimed at boosting credit growth, asset quality stress in retail and micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) segments continues to constrain lending appetite among private banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), according to ICRA’s latest credit outlook.

The report notes that loans to MSMEs and unsecured personal loans now account for 17% of the overall non-food credit of ₹184 trillion for banks as of July 2025. For NBFCs, these segments comprise approximately 34% of their total credit book of ₹35 trillion as of March 2025. This concentration has heightened lenders’ exposure to income shocks and demand-side vulnerabilities, particularly in sectors linked to exports and discretionary consumption.

Anil Gupta, senior vice president and co-group head at ICRA, said the stress in these segments has led to slower growth for private sector banks and NBFCs. “With improvement in economic activity post the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cuts, the growth appetite shall improve, which will support the credit growth,” Gupta added. However, ICRA remains cautious about the underlying asset quality risks, especially given the evolving geopolitical conditions and their second-order effects on borrower income and repayment capacity.

The report highlights that transport operators serving export-dependent industries such as apparel are facing lower capacity utilisation, which in turn affects their ability to service loans. Employees in these sectors are also vulnerable to liquidity pressures, impacting repayments on microfinance, personal and home loans. These dynamics are expected to manifest more visibly from the third quarter of FY2026, should growth remain subdued and tariff-related pressures persist.

Credit costs are projected to rise modestly in FY2026 – by up to 13 basis points for banks and 30 basis points for NBFCs compared to the previous fiscal. AM Karthik, senior vice president and co-group head at ICRA, noted that the impact would be more pronounced in non-housing segments. While lenders’ earnings may be cushioned by lower funding costs and adequate capital buffers, the outlook for microfinance institutions remains negative due to their heightened sensitivity to borrower income volatility.

The implications for the retail and MSME sectors are significant. Tighter credit conditions and cautious lending practices could limit access to working capital and personal finance, particularly for borrowers with limited formal income documentation. This may slow recovery in consumption and small business activity, even as broader economic indicators show signs of stabilisation.

Some mid-sized NBFCs are especially vulnerable, according to ICRA, due to low capital buffers and high borrower overdues. Their limited financial flexibility in raising equity or refinancing debt could amplify credit risk if stress persists. While larger institutions may absorb these pressures, smaller players could face earnings volatility and funding constraints.

While headline credit growth figures remain broadly positive, the underlying asset quality challenges in retail and MSME segments present a more nuanced picture. Policymakers and lenders alike will need to monitor these trends closely to ensure that credit expansion does not come at the cost of financial stability.

GST rate cuts to ease cash flow and sharpen MSME competitiveness

Mumbai: The recent rationalisation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates by the Government of India marks a targeted intervention to reduce input costs, improve working capital efficiency, and enhance the competitiveness of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and the broader manufacturing sector. The measures, approved by the GST Council, address long-standing structural issues such as inverted duty structures and refund bottlenecks, particularly for small exporters and e-commerce consignments.

Among the most consequential changes is the removal of the value threshold for GST refunds on low-value exports. This amendment to Section 54(14) of the CGST Act, 2017 enables refunds for all exports made with payment of tax, regardless of consignment value. The reform is expected to significantly ease compliance for small exporters, especially those using courier or postal channels, and improve cash flow by unlocking refunds that were previously inaccessible due to value limits. By simplifying procedures and reducing working capital constraints, the move allows MSMEs and small sellers to participate more effectively in international trade.

The rate cuts themselves are broad-based, spanning sectors such as paper, leather, wood, textiles, food processing, toys, packaging materials, and commercial vehicles. For instance, GST on paper packaging, textiles, and leather has been reduced from 12–18% to 5%, directly lowering production costs and enabling more competitive pricing for exporters. Similarly, the reduction in GST on trucks and delivery vans from 28% to 18% is expected to reduce freight and logistics expenses, strengthening supply chains and improving margins across manufacturing and distribution networks.

The rationalisation also corrects inverted duty structures in key sectors like textiles and food processing, where input taxes previously exceeded output taxes, leading to refund delays and working capital blockages. By aligning rates more logically across the value chain, the reforms ensure smoother refund flows and reduce the financial strain on producers. This is particularly relevant for MSMEs, which often operate with limited liquidity and are disproportionately affected by refund delays.

Industry groups have broadly welcomed the changes, noting that faster refunds and rate adjustments will ease liquidity pressures and support domestic production. The reduction in GST on toys and sports goods from 12% to 5% is expected to incentivise local manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports, while also tapping into growing global demand. Eco-friendly products such as bamboo, bagasse and jute boards have also seen rate reductions, aligning fiscal policy with sustainability goals and global standards.

The cumulative effect of these reforms is a more predictable and efficient tax environment for manufacturers and exporters. By lowering input costs and streamlining refund mechanisms, the government has taken steps to reduce inflationary pressures and improve the viability of domestic production. These changes also support India’s ambition to become a global hub in sectors such as textiles, auto components, food processing and handicrafts.

Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal described the rationalisation as a decisive step in strengthening India’s manufacturing base and empowering MSMEs. He emphasised that the reforms deliver tangible benefits to producers, traders and exporters, reinforcing the broader vision of building an Atmanirbhar Bharat.

Affordable aquaculture inputs bring relief to grassroots producers

Mumbai: The GST Council’s decision to reduce tax rates across the fisheries value chain is set to ease financial pressure on a wide range of rural stakeholders. From fish farmers and aquaculturists to small-scale fishers, women’s self-help groups and cooperatives, the reforms offer tangible relief by lowering the cost of essential inputs and equipment. With the revised rates taking effect from September 22, 2025, producers are expected to benefit from reduced operational costs and improved viability. These changes come at a time when fisheries and aquaculture continue to expand rapidly, playing a vital role in rural employment and income generation across India.

Among the most consequential adjustments is the reduction of GST on essential aquaculture equipment and inputs. Diesel engines, pumps, aerators and sprinklers, all critical for pond management and hatchery operations, will now attract 5 per cent GST, down from the earlier 12 to 18 per cent. This change alone is likely to ease capital expenditure for fish farmers and cooperatives, many of whom operate on tight margins and limited access to formal credit.

Similarly, the GST rate on pond conditioning chemicals such as ammonia and micronutrients has been cut to 5 per cent. These inputs are vital for maintaining water quality and ensuring healthy fish growth. Lower taxation on such items reduces the cost of feed and farm-level practices, making aquaculture more accessible to small and marginal producers, including women-led self-help groups that have increasingly entered the sector through government-supported livelihood schemes.

The reforms also extend to seafood processing and value-added products. Prepared or preserved fish and shrimp, including exports, will now be taxed at 5 per cent instead of 12 per cent. This not only makes hygienically processed seafood more affordable for domestic consumers but also improves the competitiveness of Indian seafood in global markets. India’s seafood exports crossed ₹60,000 crore in 2023–24, with shrimp accounting for a significant share. Lower GST on these products supports processing units and job work services, which are often run by cooperatives and small enterprises in coastal and inland regions.

Fishing gear has also seen a rate reduction. Items such as rods, tackle, landing nets and butterfly nets – previously taxed at 12 percent – will now attract 5 per cent GST. This benefits small-scale fishers engaged in capture fisheries and recreational fishing, many of whom rely on affordable gear to sustain their livelihoods. The change is particularly relevant in states with large inland water bodies and coastal communities, where fishing remains a primary source of income.

Composting machines, used for producing organic manure and managing pond waste, are now taxed at 5 per cent. This supports sustainable aquaculture practices and aligns with broader environmental goals, while also reducing input costs for farmers who integrate fish farming with agriculture.

Taken together, these reforms represent a shift toward more inclusive taxation in the fisheries sector. By lowering the cost of inputs and equipment, the government has addressed a key barrier to entry and expansion for small producers. The impact is likely to be most visible in rural areas, where over 3 crore people depend on fisheries and aquaculture for their livelihoods. Many of these are informal workers, women entrepreneurs, and cooperative members who stand to benefit from reduced financial pressure and improved viability.

India produced nearly 195 lakh tonnes of fish in 2024–25, making it the second-largest fish producer globally. Yet the sector’s growth has often been constrained by fragmented supply chains and high input costs. The GST rationalisation helps correct these imbalances, offering a more predictable and affordable framework for producers and processors alike.

While the reforms do not address every structural challenge in the sector, they mark a clear step toward improving rural incomes and supporting the Blue Economy. By easing the financial burden on those at the base of the value chain, the changes reinforce the role of fisheries as a driver of employment, nutrition and export growth.

India’s seafood exports get EU boost with 102 listings, offset US setback

Mumbai: India’s seafood export sector has received a substantial boost with the European Union (EU) approving 102 new fishery establishments for export to its member countries. The move is expected to significantly increase export volumes, generate employment across coastal regions, and strengthen foreign exchange earnings at a time when Indian exporters are grappling with a steep 50% tariff imposed by the United States (US).

The EU’s decision follows a series of bilateral meetings held in Brussels and New Delhi, where senior officials from the Department of Commerce and Union Minister Piyush Goyal engaged with their European counterparts. The outcome reflects renewed confidence in India’s food safety and quality assurance systems, particularly the official control mechanisms implemented by the Export Inspection Council (EIC). These controls have been instrumental in ensuring compliance with the EU’s stringent regulatory standards, especially for aquaculture shrimps and cephalopods such as squid, cuttlefish and octopus.

The inclusion of these 102 establishments in the EU-approved list marks a notable expansion in India’s seafood export capacity. Exporters across coastal states and union territories now have greater access to one of the world’s most quality-sensitive markets, enabling them to diversify product offerings and deepen trade relationships. The timing is critical. With the US tariff hike dampening competitiveness in a key market, the EU’s endorsement offers a counterweight and a viable growth channel for Indian seafood producers.

According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the development is expected to translate into tangible economic gains. Increased export volumes will likely spur job creation in processing, logistics and aquaculture, while higher foreign exchange inflows could help offset trade imbalances exacerbated by protectionist measures elsewhere. The Department of Commerce has reiterated its support for exporters through policy facilitation, infrastructure upgrades and capacity building initiatives.

The EIC and its affiliated agencies continue to play a central role in maintaining India’s reputation as a reliable supplier of high-quality seafood. Their efforts in traceability, hygiene compliance and certification have been key to securing international market access. The EU’s decision also signals a broader environment of mutual trust in product standards between the two regions – a foundation that could support future trade negotiations and sectoral cooperation.

While the US tariff remains a concern for Indian exporters, the EU’s approval of additional establishments offers a timely and strategic opportunity to rebalance trade flows. For India’s seafood industry, this development is more than a regulatory milestone – it is a gateway to sustained growth in a challenging global trade environment.

Cholesterol-based nanomaterials unlock quantum tech potential

Mumbai: Researchers at the Institute of Nano Science and Technology (INST), Mohali, have developed cholesterol-based nanomaterials that could serve as novel platforms for quantum technologies and spintronic applications. The work, led by Dr Amit Kumar Mondal and supported by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), demonstrates how a biomolecule typically associated with cardiovascular risk can be repurposed to manipulate electron spin, a quantum property central to next-generation electronics.

Dr Amit Kumar Mondal with his team
(Pic Courtesy: PIB)

The team’s approach leverages cholesterol’s intrinsic chirality and molecular flexibility to construct supramolecular frameworks capable of controlling spin orientation. By integrating metal ions into these organic structures, the researchers created nanomaterials that selectively filter electron spins. Crucially, both spin directions can be tuned within a single system, allowing for precise control over spin flow using chemical stimuli. This dual-direction control marks a significant step forward in the design of spintronic materials, which rely on the manipulation of electron spin rather than charge.

Spintronics, short for spin-based electronics, is a field that promises energy-efficient alternatives to conventional semiconductor technologies. Materials that can separate and guide electron spins with high fidelity are essential for developing memory devices, sensors, and quantum computing components. The INST team’s findings, published in Chemistry of Materials, show that cholesterol-based systems offer a chemically tunable route to spin control, potentially reducing the complexity and cost of device fabrication.

The research also underscores the broader potential of biomaterials in quantum applications. Unlike synthetic polymers or inorganic substrates, cholesterol offers a biologically derived, structurally versatile platform that can be modified with relative ease. This opens up possibilities for integrating spintronic functions into bioelectronic devices, where compatibility with living systems is a key requirement.

While the study remains at the materials development stage, its implications are far-reaching. The ability to engineer spin-selective pathways using simple chemical modifications could accelerate the deployment of spin-based components in commercial technologies. Moreover, the use of cholesterol, a widely available and well-characterised molecule, may simplify regulatory and manufacturing hurdles associated with novel quantum materials.

Visualising spintronics: Cholesterol-based nanomaterials
guide electron spin with chemical precision

The work reflects a growing interest in interdisciplinary approaches to quantum engineering, where insights from chemistry, biology, and materials science converge to address longstanding challenges in electronics. As quantum technologies move from theoretical constructs to practical systems, innovations like these will be critical in shaping their scalability and sustainability.

The INST team’s contribution adds a new dimension to the field, positioning cholesterol not just as a biological molecule but as a functional material with quantum relevance. Whether this leads to commercial spintronic devices or remains a foundational advance in materials science, it signals a shift in how researchers think about the building blocks of future electronics.

Readymade garment exporters with high US exposure brace for margin compression as 50% US tariff rate kicks in

Mumbai: Readymade garment (RMG) sector is set to witness a sharp slowdown in revenue growth, with Crisil Ratings projecting a halving to just 3–5% this fiscal. The trigger: a steep 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian RMG imports, effective August 27, 2025.

The US, which accounted for a third of India’s $16 billion RMG exports last year, is expected to see its share drop to 20–25% as American retailers rework sourcing strategies. Exporters deriving over 40% of their revenue from the US are likely to be hit hardest, with profitability contracting by 300–500 basis points.

While domestic demand -- comprising three-fourths of sectoral revenue -- is expected to grow steadily at 8–10%, Crisil warns that oversupply and tariff-driven disadvantages could dent margins and credit metrics across the board.

Some relief may come from the UK, European Union, and UAE markets, which together form 45% of India’s RMG exports. The recently signed UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is expected to boost shipments later this fiscal.

According to Manish Gupta, deputy chief rating officer, Crisil Ratings, if the tariffs hold, RMG exports to the US will see a sharp decline. "In the first quarter of this fiscal, total exports from India rose ~10% on-year to ~$4 billion, with exports to US recording a ~14% growth during the same period. The trend is expected to sustain through August 26, 2025, till the enhanced tariffs kick in.

"Post 50% tariffs, Indian exports to the US may be minimal, despite limited capacity of competing nations in value-added garments and lead time taken by big-box retailers in the US to re-align their sourcing arrangements. Overall, we expect the share of the US in India's RMG exports to fall from 33% last fiscal to 20-25% this fiscal."

Export-driven sectors in India struggle as global demand weakens

Mumbai: India’s export-oriented industries are facing sustained pressure amid weakening global demand, with sectors such as agro-chemicals, textiles, auto components, seafood, cut and polished diamonds, and information technology (IT) services reporting subdued performance. According to ICRA’s latest quarterly outlook, the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated US tariffs continues to weigh heavily on external trade sentiment, even as domestic consumption shows signs of resilience.

The credit rating agency expects India Inc. to post modest year-on-year revenue growth of 5–6% in the second quarter of FY2026, broadly in line with the 5.5% increase recorded in the first-quarter. This growth is largely attributed to firm rural demand and structural shifts favouring organised players and premium product categories. However, the export-facing segments remain a drag on overall performance, with limited visibility on near-term recovery.

Kinjal Shah, senior vice president and co-group head – Corporate Ratings at ICRA, noted that while rural consumption has held up, urban demand is yet to recover meaningfully. Despite supportive factors such as income tax relief and easing food inflation, sentiment remains cautious. Shah added that the anticipated rationalisation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates could offer some stimulus, but uncertainty around its structure may lead to deferred discretionary purchases, potentially pushing demand into the latter half of the fiscal year.

ICRA’s analysis covers 585 listed non-financial companies, whose aggregate performance in the first-quarter FY2026 reflected the broader trends. Revenue growth was driven by consumption-linked sectors including consumer durables, retail, hotels, and gems and jewellery, as well as infrastructure-oriented industries such as cement, capital goods, and construction. These segments had posted muted results in the same quarter last year due to election-related disruptions.

Sequentially, however, revenues declined by 4.1% in the first-quarter following a seasonally strong fourth-quarter. The drop was led by sectors such as real estate, construction, capital goods, hotels, and airlines. Export-heavy industries, meanwhile, continued to struggle with weak demand and pricing pressure. In particular, agro-chemicals and textiles have been hit by inventory overhangs and sluggish orders from key markets, while seafood and diamond exports remain vulnerable to trade restrictions and shifting consumer preferences abroad.

The IT services sector, traditionally a strong performer, has also seen a moderation in growth due to delayed client spending and cautious hiring in developed markets. Auto component manufacturers are grappling with lower export volumes and margin compression, exacerbated by currency volatility and elevated input costs.

Despite these challenges, India Inc.’s operating profit margins are expected to remain steady in the 18–18.2% range in the second-quarter, supported by softening commodity prices including crude oil and coal. In the first-quarter, margins stood at 18.1% year-on-year, with gains in telecom, cement, and real estate offset by declines in auto, consumer durables, and metals and mining. On a sequential basis, margins fell by 28 basis points, with sectors such as hotels, power, and capital goods affected by cost pressures and the early onset of monsoons.

Interest coverage ratios are projected to improve slightly to 4.9–5.1 times in the second-quarter, up from 4.9 times in the first-quarter, aided by festive season demand and gradual transmission of policy rate cuts. However, ICRA notes that higher working capital requirements have led to increased interest costs, particularly in sectors with elevated inventory levels and delayed receivables.

Private sector capital expenditure remains cautious, with the uncertain global environment prompting delays in broader investment cycles. Nonetheless, select areas such as electronics, semiconductors, and electric vehicles continue to attract capital, supported by targeted policy incentives and long-term growth prospects. Government spending is expected to provide some support to overall investment activity, although the scope for further expansion may narrow in subsequent quarters following front-loaded outlays in the first-quarter.

The outlook for export-oriented sectors remains clouded by external risks, and any meaningful recovery will depend on stabilisation in global trade conditions and improved demand from key markets. In the interim, domestic consumption and structural shifts within India’s economy are likely to remain the primary drivers of corporate performance.

US tariff hike puts $19 billion of MSME exports at risk; textiles, diamonds, seafood most exposed

Mumbai, August 20, 2025: India’s micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are bracing for a sharp blow as the United States doubles import tariffs on a wide range of Indian goods starting August 27. The move raises the total duty to 50%, threatening the competitiveness of sectors where MSMEs dominate both production and export volumes.

According to Crisil Intelligence, textiles, gems and jewellery, seafood and chemicals, which together account for nearly a quarter of India’s exports to the US, are among the worst hit. MSMEs contribute over 70% of output in these industries, and many operate on thin margins with limited ability to absorb cost shocks.

The Tirupur garment cluster, responsible for over 30% of India’s readymade garment exports, faces a steep climb. With 30% of its shipments headed to the US, the new tariff regime pushes the effective duty on Indian garments to 61%, compared to just 31% for competitors in Bangladesh and Vietnam. After two years of sluggish growth, the sector’s modest recovery now hangs in the balance.

Surat’s diamond polishing units, which account for more than 80% of India’s diamond exports, are similarly exposed. Diamonds make up over half of India’s gems and jewellery exports, and the US is the largest buyer, taking in nearly a third. A prolonged downturn could impact thousands of MSMEs clustered around Surat.

Seafood exporters face a tough battle too. With tariffs doubling to 50%, Indian suppliers will struggle to compete with Ecuador, which enjoys a lower 15% duty and proximity to the US market.

In chemicals, MSMEs with a 40% market share are disadvantaged against Japanese and South Korean firms that face lower tariffs and have stronger trade ties with the US.

Auto component MSMEs may see a more limited impact. While the US accounts for just 3.5% of India’s total production, certain segments, especially gearbox and transmission parts, have up to 40% exposure and could feel the pinch.

Crisil Intelligence estimates that about $19 billion worth of exports across textiles, chemicals, seafood and auto components are now at risk. Domestic demand is projected to rise by $10 billion in these industries, offering partial relief. In gems and jewellery, rising gold prices and steady domestic consumption may cushion the revenue impact, even if export volumes decline.

Some sectors remain insulated. Pharmaceuticals, which represent 12% of India’s exports to the US, are exempt from the new tariffs. Steel MSMEs are also largely unaffected, as they produce long products while US imports are concentrated in flat products. The US accounts for just 1% of India’s steel exports.

Still, the timing of the tariff hike is challenging. Exporters are already grappling with slowing global demand and shrinking margins. For small businesses with limited pricing power, the ability to withstand further cost pressures is thin. To navigate the turbulence, diversification will be key.

India’s recently concluded trade agreement with the United Kingdom offers a potential lifeline, especially for MSMEs in textiles, seafood, gems and jewellery, leather and pharmaceuticals. The deal enhances competitiveness against regional rivals and could help offset losses in the US market. Ongoing negotiations with the European Union may further support market diversification.