An edited version of this story first appeared in DNA Money edition on Tuesday, September 11, 2012.
India's premium hotel operators (five-star, five-star deluxe and above) are in for challenging times in the next couple of years. As per Crisil Research, profitability of premium hotels is likely to plunge to levels that will be the lowest in the last decade. The analysis is based on business performance assessment of the premium hotel segment across 12 Indian cities that collectively account for 80% of India's premium hotel rooms.
As global economic slowdown affects both business and leisure travel, according to Binaifer Jehani, director, Crisil Research, annual demand growth for premium hotel rooms is likely to stay subdued at 7% in 2012-13 and 2013-14. "The slowing demand growth will coincide with large additions of rooms. We expect 14,500 new rooms to be added by 2013-14 to the existing 46,200 rooms as a result occupancy levels of premium hotels will fall from 64% in 2011-12 to 56% in 2013-14," said Jehani.
Fighting a host of challenges including slowing demand growth, rising costs, large-scale room additions leading to decline in occupancy levels and average room rates, the premium hotels segment will see operating margins drop to just over 16% in financial year 2013-14. This, according to Crisil, will be the lowest in 10 years as a similar drop was witnessed back in 2002-03 and 2003-2004 post 9/11 terror attack and the SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak.
“The margins had dropped to 16-17% during that period, as travel advisories were issued by various countries thus sparking a drastic fall in demand. However, that fall was temporary and margins recovered to their earlier levels of 30-35%. This time around though, the recovery will be slower. A continued oversupply, at least till 2015-16, will maintain the pressure on profitability of premium hotels,” Jehani said adding that operating margins will, dip from around 24% in 2011-12 to slightly over 16% in 2013-14.
However, Dilip Puri, managing director - India and regional vice president - South Asia, Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels & Resorts Pte Ltd, feels it is incorrect to generalise trends across the whole country. "While there is pressure on margins, I do not believe they will plunge to levels as indicated in the report. At Starwood, we have institutionalised many learnings from the recession of 2008/9 and now have more efficient cost structures in place to withstand the temporary dip in business we are seeing presently. The markets that will see considerable pressure are those where there is likely to be a significant increase in supply, specifically Chennai and Delhi (with DIAL hotels).”
Officials from other domestic and international premium hotel chains like Taj, Oberoi, Leela, ITC, Marriott, Hilton, Accor, etc were not available for a comment.
However, P R S Oberoi, chairman, East India Hotels (owners and operators of The Oberoi and Trident hotel brands), in his address to shareholders last month had said that while occupancy levels were maintained, room rates have shown a downward trend. "Due to the expanding presence of new international brands, supply has exceeded demand in the luxury segment in several cities," Oberoi had said.
Increased room inventory across various markets has already intensified competition and aggravated the demand-supply imbalance prevailing in the segment. As a result, average room rates (ARR) for premium hotels, which are already under pressure, are set to further dip by about 10% in 2011-12 and 2013-14. The fall in occupancy rates and room rates is likely to precipitate a sharp decline in revenue per available room (RevPAR), the revenue from rooms occupied divided by the number of rooms available. "The average RevPAR for premium hotels will plummet from Rs 5,000 per day in 2011-12 to Rs 3,900 per day in 2013-14," said Crisil Research.
Of the 12 cities being analysed, it is expected that 10 of them will see decline in RevPAR. While cities like Ahmedabad and Chennai are set to be impacted the most with an annual decline of over 20%, premium hotels in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, National capital Region (NCR), Jaipur and Kochi will register a fall of 15% annually. Markets like Agra will see stable RevPAR due to limited room additions while it will marginally increase in Goa.
The research house further added that decline in RevPAR will erode the profitability of premium hotels, as room revenues make up almost two third of their total revenues. Rising costs will add to the pressure on profitability. A shortage of personnel will increase employee costs, whereas energy costs are also expected to rise significantly.
India's premium hotel operators (five-star, five-star deluxe and above) are in for challenging times in the next couple of years. As per Crisil Research, profitability of premium hotels is likely to plunge to levels that will be the lowest in the last decade. The analysis is based on business performance assessment of the premium hotel segment across 12 Indian cities that collectively account for 80% of India's premium hotel rooms.
As global economic slowdown affects both business and leisure travel, according to Binaifer Jehani, director, Crisil Research, annual demand growth for premium hotel rooms is likely to stay subdued at 7% in 2012-13 and 2013-14. "The slowing demand growth will coincide with large additions of rooms. We expect 14,500 new rooms to be added by 2013-14 to the existing 46,200 rooms as a result occupancy levels of premium hotels will fall from 64% in 2011-12 to 56% in 2013-14," said Jehani.
Fighting a host of challenges including slowing demand growth, rising costs, large-scale room additions leading to decline in occupancy levels and average room rates, the premium hotels segment will see operating margins drop to just over 16% in financial year 2013-14. This, according to Crisil, will be the lowest in 10 years as a similar drop was witnessed back in 2002-03 and 2003-2004 post 9/11 terror attack and the SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak.
“The margins had dropped to 16-17% during that period, as travel advisories were issued by various countries thus sparking a drastic fall in demand. However, that fall was temporary and margins recovered to their earlier levels of 30-35%. This time around though, the recovery will be slower. A continued oversupply, at least till 2015-16, will maintain the pressure on profitability of premium hotels,” Jehani said adding that operating margins will, dip from around 24% in 2011-12 to slightly over 16% in 2013-14.
However, Dilip Puri, managing director - India and regional vice president - South Asia, Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels & Resorts Pte Ltd, feels it is incorrect to generalise trends across the whole country. "While there is pressure on margins, I do not believe they will plunge to levels as indicated in the report. At Starwood, we have institutionalised many learnings from the recession of 2008/9 and now have more efficient cost structures in place to withstand the temporary dip in business we are seeing presently. The markets that will see considerable pressure are those where there is likely to be a significant increase in supply, specifically Chennai and Delhi (with DIAL hotels).”
Officials from other domestic and international premium hotel chains like Taj, Oberoi, Leela, ITC, Marriott, Hilton, Accor, etc were not available for a comment.
However, P R S Oberoi, chairman, East India Hotels (owners and operators of The Oberoi and Trident hotel brands), in his address to shareholders last month had said that while occupancy levels were maintained, room rates have shown a downward trend. "Due to the expanding presence of new international brands, supply has exceeded demand in the luxury segment in several cities," Oberoi had said.
Increased room inventory across various markets has already intensified competition and aggravated the demand-supply imbalance prevailing in the segment. As a result, average room rates (ARR) for premium hotels, which are already under pressure, are set to further dip by about 10% in 2011-12 and 2013-14. The fall in occupancy rates and room rates is likely to precipitate a sharp decline in revenue per available room (RevPAR), the revenue from rooms occupied divided by the number of rooms available. "The average RevPAR for premium hotels will plummet from Rs 5,000 per day in 2011-12 to Rs 3,900 per day in 2013-14," said Crisil Research.
Of the 12 cities being analysed, it is expected that 10 of them will see decline in RevPAR. While cities like Ahmedabad and Chennai are set to be impacted the most with an annual decline of over 20%, premium hotels in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, National capital Region (NCR), Jaipur and Kochi will register a fall of 15% annually. Markets like Agra will see stable RevPAR due to limited room additions while it will marginally increase in Goa.
The research house further added that decline in RevPAR will erode the profitability of premium hotels, as room revenues make up almost two third of their total revenues. Rising costs will add to the pressure on profitability. A shortage of personnel will increase employee costs, whereas energy costs are also expected to rise significantly.
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