Mumbai: India’s exports to the United States have experienced a significant downturn, marking one of the sharpest short-term declines in recent years. Between May and September 2025, exports to the US fell by 37.5 per cent, dropping from $8.8 billion to $5.5 billion. This decline comes in the wake of steep tariff hikes imposed by the US government, which began at 10 per cent on April 02, 2025, escalated to 25 per cent on August 07, 2025, and reached a punitive 50 per cent by late August 2025. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has analysed the impact of these tariffs, revealing a widespread contraction across various sectors.
Surprisingly, tariff-free products, which account for nearly one-third of India’s total shipments to the US, suffered the most severe contraction. Exports in this category fell by 47 per cent, from $3.4 billion in May to $1.8 billion in September. Among the hardest-hit products were smartphones and pharmaceuticals, both of which are key beneficiaries of India’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) manufacturing programme.
Smartphone exports, which had seen a remarkable 197 per cent surge between April and September 2024 compared to the same period in 2025, plummeted by 58 per cent during the review period. Monthly shipments fell consistently, from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September. The reasons behind this sharp decline remain unclear and warrant further investigation. Pharmaceutical exports also experienced a notable drop, slipping by 15.7 per cent from $745.6 million to $628.3 million, despite being exempt from tariffs.
In contrast, sectors subject to uniform tariffs for all countries, such as industrial metals and auto parts, showed a milder decline. Exports in these categories fell by 16.7 per cent, from $0.6 billion to $0.5 billion. Within this group, aluminium exports dropped by 37 per cent, copper by 25 per cent, auto parts by 12 per cent, and iron and steel by 8 per cent. The relatively smaller contraction in these sectors suggests that the decline may be more closely linked to a slowdown in US industrial activity rather than a loss of competitiveness for Indian exporters.
The most severe impact was felt in labour-intensive sectors, which were subjected to the 50 per cent India-specific tariffs. These sectors, including textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals, agri-foods, and machinery, collectively account for nearly 60 per cent of India’s exports to the US. Exports in these categories fell by 33 per cent, from $4.8 billion in May to $3.2 billion in September.
Within this group, gems and jewellery exports were particularly hard-hit, collapsing by 59.5 per cent from $500.2 million to $202.8 million. Gold jewellery exports fell by 58 per cent, diamond-studded pieces by 63 per cent, and lab-grown jewellery by 37 per cent. Exports of cut and polished diamonds dropped by 54 per cent, while lab-grown diamond exports plunged by a staggering 89 per cent. The decline has severely impacted manufacturing hubs in Surat and Mumbai, as competitors from Thailand and Vietnam have captured lost US orders.
Solar panel exports also suffered a sharp decline, falling by 60.8 per cent from $202.6 million to $79.4 million. India’s competitiveness in the renewable energy sector has been eroded, particularly as China and Vietnam face lower tariffs of 30 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively. Textiles and garments, another key labour-intensive sector, saw exports fall by 37 per cent, from $944 million to $597 million. Within this category, garments experienced a 44 per cent decline, home textiles fell by 16 per cent, and yarn and fabrics dropped by 41 per cent. Knitted apparel exports decreased by 39 per cent, woven apparel by 50 per cent, and girls’ suits by 66 per cent.
Chemical exports also faced a significant downturn, shrinking by 35 per cent from $537 million to $350 million. Agrochemicals fell by 37 per cent, while essential oils dropped by 44 per cent. This decline has adversely affected production hubs in Vapi, Dahej, Ankleshwar, and Vizag, which are home to major firms such as UPL and Rallis India, as well as numerous micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
Marine and seafood exports, another labour-intensive sector, declined by 49 per cent, from $223 million to $113 million. Vannamei shrimp exports fell by 51 per cent, while processed seafood dropped by 22 per cent. Coastal hubs such as Nellore, Bhimavaram, Kakinada, Paradeep, Veraval, and Porbandar have been severely impacted, as buyers have shifted their focus to competitors in Ecuador and Vietnam.
Agricultural and processed food exports also recorded a broad-based slump. Preparations of cereals fell by 27 per cent, processed fruits and vegetables by 44 per cent, roots and tubers by 45 per cent, cocoa products by 99 per cent, oilseeds by 53 per cent, dairy and honey by 59 per cent, processed foods by 35 per cent, coffee and spices by 40 per cent, and resins by 61 per cent. These losses have had a devastating impact on agricultural clusters in regions such as Nashik, Gujarat, Kerala, Karnataka, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh, erasing two years of steady growth.
The sharp decline in exports has prompted calls for urgent government intervention. Exporters are urging authorities to implement targeted relief measures to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. Proposed actions include enhanced interest-equalisation support to reduce financing costs, faster duty remission to alleviate liquidity pressures, and emergency credit lines for MSME exporters. Without swift and decisive action, India risks losing its market share to competitors such as Vietnam, Mexico, and China, even in sectors where it has traditionally held a strong position.
The data presented in the GTRI report underscores the significant impact of the US tariffs on India’s export performance. The tariffs have not only squeezed trade margins but have also exposed structural vulnerabilities across key industries. As the situation continues to unfold, it remains imperative for policymakers to address these challenges and support exporters in navigating the difficult terrain ahead.
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